Who higher to stroll you thru the banking sector’s March insanity and provide their ideas on systemic monetary stress than… Credit score Suisse?

Notes from the financial institution evaluation staff at CS have come admirably thick and quick, even after their employer collapsed and was subsequently folded into rival UBS final month.

However there’s a relatively massive Swiss elephant within the room: the financial institution’s in any other case thorough evaluation of the panic that started at Silicon Valley Financial institution and prompted its personal demise awkwardly omits any point out of 1 main participant: itself. 

Addendum: Sure we all know they’d be restricted about writing about their very own financial institution, nevertheless it exhibits the issue of overlaying a disaster your personal employer is in or close to the centre of. Lehman vets will sympathise. Anyway, under is a timeline of the analysts’ notes — greatest learn to the tune of Nearer, My God, to Thee. 

March 10:

Two days after SVB launched a $2.25bn share sale to cowl a big loss on its bond portfolio, all was seemingly properly with the world. “Eurozone deposit beta stays low at first of the yr”, Credit score Suisse cheerily famous:

European [net interest income] momentum continues to be robust, with buyer spreads +10bp in January from +8bp in December. 

January deposit margins are 18bp greater within the Eurozone (led by Eire, Portugal, and Spain), and 14bp within the UK regardless of current peak NIM debates. Given greater deposit charges, margins had been barely decrease in Norway and Sweden. Within the Eurozone, deposit charges went up most (margins elevated least) in Austria and Belgium.

March 13:

Life strikes fairly quick, particularly on weekends, one thing Credit score Suisse would discover out the exhausting method later within the month. SVB had by Monday been shut down by regulators, with contagion fears wiping billions of {dollars} off the market worth of even the most important US banks. Analysts at CS didn’t seem overly involved:

European banks closed 4% decrease on Friday after US banks had been 8% decrease on Thursday and 4% decrease on Friday following occasions round SVB. We see direct learn throughout as restricted to our listed European universe. [High quality liquid asset] is close to EUR 5tn with median [liquidity cover ratio] and [net stable funding ratio] of 145% and 120%. Extra broadly on the deposit debate, European deposits are nonetheless rising adjusted for seasonality.…

Unrealised bond loss concern is overdone: Whereas greater charges can create unrealised losses in AC debt portfolios, that is solely a difficulty if there’s a catalyst to understand these losses via funding outflows. European banks have debt securities at amortised price barely above their [common equity tier 1] capital at a median 4% of belongings, with the remainder already marked to market in fairness.

March 15:

Hassle a-brewing. A day earlier, Credit score Suisse (the corporate itself) mentioned it had recognized “materials weaknesses” in its inside controls over monetary reporting, sending its shares down 4 per cent and the unfold on its five-year credit score default swaps as much as a report 522 foundation factors. 

SVB’s collapse had in the meantime sparked a full-blown panic — the sort that may convey down even healthy-looking banks, not to mention these softened up by years of disaster.

The, uh, Credit score Suisse analysis verdict? Meh, it’ll most likely be advantageous — its analysts both ignoring or precluded from mentioning (possibly by a battle of curiosity, or as a result of Swiss banks aren’t on the Euro Stoxx banks index) their employer’s personal worrying CDS spike:

We don’t see SVB itself being a systemic threat particularly now that there seems to be a de facto assure on all deposits of troubled banks and President Biden’s dedication to do ‘no matter is required’ to guard deposits. Whereas the [three-month forward rate agreement/overnight index swap rate] unfold (a sign of stress) has widened sharply (however is a good distance away from GFC ranges), senior banks’ CDS spreads in Europe and the US don’t sign main stress. We view these as a greater reflection of systemic threat.

March 16:

Requested whether or not the Saudi Nationwide Financial institution would take into account extending further capital to Credit score Suisse if wanted, (now ex-)SNB chair Ammar Alkhudairy delivered what now seems to have been the killer blow. “The reply is completely not,” he informed Bloomberg. Cue pandemonium in every single place…

…besides the Credit score Suisse banks technique desk:

Put up SVB, we anticipate investor threat urge for food and fundraising momentum to stay subdued for longer…

SVB, Signature Financial institution and Silvergate have had a big influence on securities market ranges and volatility, and market rate of interest expectations. While longer-term impacts aren’t but clear, we spotlight three potential outcomes: i) Extra volatility and derivatives buying and selling and clearing volumes – benefiting DB1 and LSEG, ii) Lowered investor threat urge for food – with a better deal with liquidity and threat, and iii) Reaching peak NIM sooner.

March 17:

Shares in CS rallied after the Swiss Nationwide Financial institution agreed to do what the Saudis had hours earlier dominated out, extending a $54bn liquidity lifeline to shore up confidence. 

As Bryce identified on the time, CS’s liquidity protection ratio “even earlier than taking account of the backstop… was 150 per cent — which isn’t nice, however not justification to panic both.” Not that CS analysts had been ever fearful:

This time market considerations are rate of interest threat and liquidity, relatively than credit score threat. Our Monday report highlighted the low degree of period threat in European banks’ bond portfolio. We additionally see the banks in our protection tending to be bigger gamers in their very own markets, and more likely to transfer with system traits the place European deposits are nonetheless rising. We see essentially the most tangible influence on banks’ earnings from the week’s occasions being modifications in coverage price expectations. 

With central financial institution funding secured, its shares recovering and a disaster absolutely averted, Credit score Suisse’s analysts seemingly took a well-earned week off. 

March 24:

Other than UBS agreeing a $3.25bn deal to purchase Credit score Suisse on March 19, doubtlessly averting a worldwide financial meltdown, nothing a lot occurred whereas the analysts had been away. Again at their desks, they bought again to work on the large questions of the day:

The weak point in US workplace REITs as a result of refi challenges has led to a renewed deal with Business Actual Property (CRE) exposures of banks…

March 29:

Recent from being worn out within the shotgun marriage with UBS, Credit score Suisse further tier 1 bondholders had been by now in uproar. Take just a few deep breaths and bear in mind it may simply be worse, CS’s analysts soothed:

We diminished European banks to a marginal chubby in our 2023 outlook however critically want banks to non-financial cyclicals (the place we’re underweight). Banks within the US have underperformed by 28% (the traditional bear market sees underperformance of 42%) — in Europe, we expect for good causes, banks have underperformed by solely 10% (cf a historic bear market norm of 35% underperformance).

March 31:

A word on fast-approaching first-quarter earnings appeared a pleasant technique to spherical off a month marked by a mysterious bout of “renewed volatility”.

Most banks have urged at conferences throughout Q1 that whereas exercise is more likely to be down on prior yr, volatility has been good for enterprise.