What Home Depot’s poor outlook means for the stock market and economy

A Residence Depot retailer in Livermore, California, US, on Thursday, Could 12, 2022. Residence Depot Inc. is scheduled to launch earnings figures on Could 17. Photographer:

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Photographs

Simply an terrible earnings report from the inventory market’s most vital retailer on Tuesday: Residence Depot.

Backside line – the broader-market implications of Tuesday morning’s post-earnings inventory transfer for Residence Depot are going to be important. And do not count on a lot enchancment from the house enchancment retailer any time quickly.

Residence Depot is tumbling 5%, or $13 a share, in premarket buying and selling. That is price about 100 factors on the Dow Jones Industrial Common and may take a chunk out of the S&P 500 too. Bear in mind, it is probably the most impactful retailer within the price-weighted Dow – having nearly double the burden of Walmart (since it’s nearly double the worth). And regardless of Walmart’s a lot bigger market cap – as we highlighted yesterday – Residence Depot has each a larger index and earnings affect within the S&P 500 as a result of Walton household’s hefty stake in Walmart that reduces its weighting in the primary fairness benchmark. Lowe’s is down 3% pre-open in sympathy, nevertheless it will not report outcomes till subsequent Tuesday.

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Residence Depot, 1 day

Residence Depot’s EPS beat by 2 cents as a 3.9% discount in SG&A prices helped a little bit. Nevertheless, it’s nonetheless the retailer’s first earnings decline since Could 2020 (i.e., because the begin of the pandemic).

However the true story is the demand destruction – as indicated by the corporate’s big income miss. Gross sales have been 2.7% beneath Wall Road’s expectations ($37.26B vs. $38.28B est. from Refinitiv) – it is greatest income miss since November 2002. Additionally it is the second straight income miss for the house enchancment retailer – which follows 12 straight income beats. It is also the largest income drop because the Monetary Disaster (income down 4.2% YOY within the newest quarter). Comps got here in down 4.5% vs. down 1.6% consensus estimate (StreetAccount), with transactions falling 4.8% and common ticket mainly flat (barely constructive).

Fairly darn ugly.

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Residence Depot, YTD

So what’s hurting demand? Plenty of components. In Q1 – excessive climate in California damage. However issues stretch past the climate. There’s additionally lumber deflation. However most significantly, as CEO Ted Decker flagged, “We additionally noticed extra broad-based stress throughout the enterprise in comparison with once we reported fourth quarter outcomes just a few months in the past.”

The corporate has reduce its FY EPS and income development projections as a result of weak Q1 in addition to “additional softening of demand relative to our expectations, and continued uncertainty relating to client demand.” The brand new forecast will not be fairly. Residence Depot sees full yr income down 2%-5% vs. the down 0.7% consensus estimate and EPS down 7%-13% vs. the down 5.7% consensus estimate.

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